Stop or again? – invest.ch

If we pay attention to the clues, nothing happened yesterday. If we look at the previous day’s comments – especially in regions like France – there is a clear sense of disappointment, as we are “only” up 0.26%. It’s true, we are used to making easy money from the beginning of the year, we don’t like it when it doesn’t rise fast enough. No, we will have to keep up the pace as we are used to almost 10% monthly increases. For the rest, it’s pretty simple: the economic numbers show we may yet avoid a recession, but the quarterly releases are scary. So stop or again???

January 25, 2023 vote


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Loop

As I made my morning reading journey, I realized that we are very attached to the word “pivot”. But not only in relation to the Fed. And that the bullish trajectory we’ve been experiencing since the beginning of the year may or may not be interrupted anytime soon, that it may soon turn around and make things a little “easy”. So yes, the recent bullishness and confidence is largely due to the fact that we all think we are closer to the end of the rate hike cycle than the beginning, and that we are getting closer to the FED PIVOT with each passing day. However, we are currently wondering if yesterday’s session was not a PIVOT session. We love this word: PIVOT…

Global PMI figures released yesterday showed that the economy is stalling. It wasn’t exactly euphoric and we didn’t see anyone dancing naked on the table, snoozing with champagne, the PMI readings were very good. But they weren’t too bad. In any case, when orders were placed for the Mercedes C63 AMG earlier in the year with trade gains, they were good enough to raise hopes that there would be no sudden downturn. On the other hand, it was the quarter’s numbers that still caused a lot of trouble.

The Quarter: drink and eat – but it’s not three Michelin stars

What we can learn from the numbers from the quarterly publications is that it’s not necessarily catastrophic – although it’s mostly because everyone’s expectations are on a tidal wave of daisies, and suddenly it’s still really complicated. disappoint. However, the smallest warning, the smallest negative surprise will be severely sanctioned. When you exceed the speed limit in Switzerland, the smallest kilometer/hour above can turn you from a good honest citizen into a serial killer wanted by all the police because you were going 35 km/h instead of 30.

For the quarter, it’s the same now. At 3M, we announced a fairly “bleak” outlook – even if no one wants to jump to the ceiling by focusing on the future, and if no one is surprised that the company makes very cautious predictions, the headline 6 went down. % and in addition they missed downwardly revised expectations by analysts. GE has posted bad numbers, according to critics, but isn’t doing badly. It was also good at Verizon and Johnson & Johnson.

After the shutdown, we still had Texas Instruments showing weak numbers, which they believed was weak demand for semiconductors, but ultimately financial experts felt that this was not a surprise and that the situation was already mostly in pricing. . Texas finished unchanged after the shutout. And then there was Microsoft…

Big Bertha’s season has begun

Last night, we could say that the quarterly season had really begun when Microsoft came out with its numbers. We won’t lie to each other, after winning the title since last fall, we can tell ourselves that the numbers weren’t bad and they weren’t too bad. Once again. Obviously, it wasn’t Byzantine, and we’ve seen sexier editions in the box set up by Bill Gates, but we could be glad it wasn’t worse. At first, the title even skyrocketed to welcome these relatively good numbers, especially at the Cloud level, as analysts predicted that the dreaded sector could see a slowdown in growth – something we have already seen recently – was “decent”.

And then we discovered a problem: LEADERS. I’ll tell you right away: there would have been no guidance last night, before the stock would have risen something like 7% for the opening. Besides, there’s some idiot out there who says to himself, “Well, what if we try to make predictions about how this or that sector will behave in the next three months? betting on things you don’t really know can be fun! like betting on kids on horses running in circles to see who will win…”… And after said idiot’s idea, Microsoft said last night that its cloud business wasn’t completely ruined, but it took 12 months to get it back on its feet and get the machine running again. Basically: a warning message about slowing cloud growth for the coming months. Suddenly, investors are wondering if the Cloud hyper-growth is definitely over, if it’s going to become a boring sector like selling cornflakes or chocolate bars, or if it’s temporary and once Microsoft works its magic, everything will be back to normal. Since we are not fans of the concept of “doubt”, Microsoft’s strong performance after the shutdown has been reset. Shares were down 1% after the close. For the first edition of one of the GAFAM members, we could not have imagined a better…

Doubt?

You didn’t have to be a soothsayer to tell yourself that starting today, everyone will be scrutinizing Amazon’s numbers, and those numbers will inevitably fall prey to the DA Cloud. But that’s not all. The halt in yesterday’s session, when the indices broke their downtrends, showed us that “a little more” is needed to find a niak and the will to go higher, using the sale of grandma’s jewelry to invest in the stock market. Looking at the level of investment at the start of 2023, we are probably in for one of the biggest ‘inflow’ months of the 12 months. Everyone has thrown their weapons into battle and what will be left for February???

If we took the time to read between the lines last night, we felt that people were looking at each other like potted bulls, just to see if their neighbor still had money to invest or if he was ALREADY going for it. Because if ALL-IN is already done, what’s left as ammunition to blow up the market? This is the big question we can ask ourselves now. If Microsoft can’t get the party started, Amazon has conservative numbers and guidance, and Apple has a bad year in iPhone sales, what are we left with? Meta??? don’t make me laugh Today we still have Tesla, IBM, Boeing, Lam Research, ASML, Abbott and At&T publishing, not to mention Intel tomorrow.

No, we are in difficult territory. While it’s great news to see us break the downtrend, we’re all itching for the Fed’s pivot theme. Finally, expect some encouraging remarks from Powell next week as everyone has been quick to act. We fueled this rally with the hope of a “FED Pivot.” If Powell punches us in the face again next Wednesday by explaining the PIVOT, we can hang it behind our ears – AGAIN – and in the process I’m told that NFPs are strong and CPI is falling more linearly as expected. the impression that we would understand the concept of free fall without a parachute. So be it – it’s a lot of “IF”s and conditionals, but at the same time, what would finance be without “Ifs” and conditionals????

Asia

On the Far East side, China and Hong Kong still celebrate the New Year, and Japan continues to rise, but a little less. Nikkei rose 0.5%. Oil is around $80.3 after several bullish sessions. But since yesterday, sellers have re-emerged as – and I quote – investors worry about downside risks. Good. This is not a big deal, as investors generally fear recessionary risks only until we feel inflation is under control and the Fed is on the verge of a reversal. It happens every 24 hours. So be patient.

On the gold side, we’re at $1,929, and with no comments from big names in finance warning that Bitcoin is going to zero and that’s stupid, Bitcoin is still not far from $23,000, but not yet. $250,000 announced by another financial star earlier in the year. On the other hand, if you want to talk about a financial guru who thinks it’s time to sell everything because we’re all going to die, GMO’s Jeremy Grantham showed up in Boston yesterday to say the party’s over. At the beginning of the year, the growth ended there. He thinks the S&P500 will end the year at 3,200, and if we break below 3,200, there could be an additional 10% acceleration. This will lead to a total decline of 50% starting in January 2022 and after that it is a BULL MARKET…

News

It is with this encouraging and encouraging news from Grantham that we begin our news section of the day. For this wednesday we will start with the war chapter as the Germans will send leopards to the Ukrainians, the Americans will have to do the same with the Abrams and the French are still feeling their way because they haven’t found a way yet. Leclerc works properly. And then charming President Zelensky, who is never short of ideas, asked his friend Manu to let Russian athletes into the 2024 Olympics. I know 5-year-olds who are less demanding than this guy. By the way, experts believe that the risk of a nuclear war increases slightly with the supply of tanks to the Ukrainians. That’s why futures are down 0.4% this morning.

On another topic, it should be noted that Hindenburgh Research, a company specializing in finding rotten boxes lying to shareholders, is a huge fraud of the Indian group Adani, whose boss is in the top 5 richest people in the world, and investors should hurry from it. The Adani group did not respond, but it is still very rare for the Hindenburg to go wrong. Various entities of the Adani group fell between 2.5% and 6% in India this morning. And then, Tesla will invest 3.6 billion in a factory for batteries and trucks in Nevada. There’s also the Department of Justice in the US attacking Google and forcing them to create part of the advertising division, not forgetting JP Morgan’s strategist Kolanovich, who are very negative about the actions there and we think we’re on the edge of a cliff, but it’s a big step forward we will throw…

Numbers of the day

As for the quarterly numbers, we’ll stick with Tesla tonight, which will obviously be the most fun, and then on the macro side, PPI in the UK, ZEW in Switzerland, IFO in Germany, members of the ECB meeting but not making a decision – just then we’ll get a lot of ‘hawks ” to make speeches. And then there will be US mortgage figures, the Red Book and oil stocks.

Futures are currently down 0.47% and we will see tomorrow if there is a reversal or if the market says: STILL UP!!! Have a great day and see you tomorrow! Finally, if you want.

Thomas Veillet
invest.ch

“The only impossible journey is the one you never start. – Tony Robbins

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