Nicolás Maduro did not attend the inauguration ceremony of Brazilian President Lula da Silva. He pulled out at the last minute when he said his services would be in attendance to seal the reopening of ties between Brazil and Venezuela, which had been strained during the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro. Despite his physical absence, Maduro was the other big hero of the day. He had just emerged as the clear winner of the unequal battle he had waged against the Venezuelan opposition since 2015. its rulers and leaders are struggling to survive in exile as six million citizens have flocked to the world, mostly to neighboring Latin American countries.
At the end of the year, three of the ten parties that make up the persecuted and largely outlawed opposition decided to oust Juan Guaido. In January 2019, he declared himself the current president of Venezuela. Acción Democrática (AD), Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) and Primero Justicia (PJ) concluded that not only had Guaidó failed at the core of his mission, which was to remove Nicolás Maduro from power, but he had also failed. the support of the countries that originally supported him in his task of eliminating Chavismo.
In fact, actually, Guaido was founded almost exclusively on the recognition of then-US President Donald Trump, which apparently prompted four dozen other countries to join, including the EU’s most important countries. This support gave Guaido access to a large portion of Venezuela’s overseas assets, including those of Citgo, a subsidiary of Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) in the United States, and control of $2 billion in gold held on behalf of the Bank of England. Central Bank of Venezuela.
With this support Guaido has appointed 35 ambassadors to multiple countries, causing corresponding conflict with both host states, It had to choose between ambassadors appointed by Maduro and ambassadors appointed by the interim president, or accept solutions of diplomatic tolerance. Today, these 35 ambassadors have been removed from their posts and the only alternative is to seek their lives elsewhere in the world, because if they return to Venezuela, they will go directly to prison. appropriation of the civil service of the foreign representation.
Brutal persecution of dissidents
The Chavista regime has been unusually harsh in suppressing all the civil demonstrations that Guaido and his opposition allies have pushed to oust Maduro. Thousands of arrests, followed by brutal torture and executions without trial, extinguished the resistance of those who realized that they had only two options: to flee the country in the hope of asylum and a better horizon, or to actively adapt. to chavismo-madurismo, whose social assistance for subsistence always demands a return of gratitude in the form of support and cooperation in manifestations and actions that affirm the diet.
The energy crisis created by Vladimir Putin in Ukraine has dramatically changed the position of the United States, whose president, Joe Biden, has turned Maduro into “a secret interlocutor of Washington, a global pariah.” In the European Union itself, French President Emmanuel Macron enthusiastically greeted him in the corridors of COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, giving him the finger of honor. This was the starting signal for other EU partners who recognize Guaido to rush to restore political-diplomatic normality with the Bolivarian dictatorship.
After Gustavo Petro came to power, the restoration of relations with neighboring Colombia and the establishment of a now-broken dialogue table between the Chavista regime and the opposition in Mexico finally Nicolás strengthened Maduro and made Guaido, which he promised to put in prison as soon as possible, is completely useless.
The Venezuelan president is therefore at the height of his power, and he clearly shares commanders with the military, who are well placed or integrated into all economic sectors of the country. Maduro, whom many governments that recognize Guaidó call “illegal president”, will take part in the next elections. The opposition, which always finds it difficult to find a single candidate, is preparing primaries in this direction. It seeks to find such a consensual election leader and to have the elections monitored by international observers to ensure they are fair.
Even if that happened, a lot would have to change in the international context for Chavismo to relinquish power. Maduro rules a country with enormous poverty (90%). It will be even stronger if it can seize foreign assets and get America’s Chevron and other foreign multinationals to reinvest in Venezuela and modernize its crumbling oil industry and outdated production systems. As for the electoral process, experts and theorists of the Bolivarian doctrine already know how to make it impossible for the opposition candidate to sit in the Miraflores Palace in Caracas.