► Presidential majority: reform and structure
The first challenge for Emmanuel Macron’s presidential majority in 2023 is to pass legislation and reforms despite the lack of an absolute majority in the National Assembly. By this criterion, the decisive appointment: the pension reform, which will be announced on January 10. It will ultimately be a simple parametric reform (postponing the legal age) after the Elysée abandoned the systemic revolution planned during the first period (the transition to a universal points system).
The second challenge is partisan: the renaissance of Emmanuel Macron’s honorary presidency with the Horizons of François Bayrou and Edouard Philippe into a real party. Activists had to join by December 31, 2022 to be able to participate in the appointment of their organizations on January 28 and 29.
► LR: resist center pull
After electing a new president, Éric Ciotti, in December 2022, the Les Republicains party must categorically abandon the main mechanism intended to select its candidate for the 2023 presidential elections. Even, appoint your own champion already, because Eric Ciotti during the internal campaign put forward the theory of division of duties with Laurent Wauquiez: party first, country second.
The right, weakened at the national level but persistent at the local level, must still curb the pull of the center on its executives and elected officials: in the National Assembly, where a handful of deputies are already aligned with the president’s majority in key votes; and in local communities where macronia continues to attract the most moderate elected officials.
► RN: continue institutionalization
For Marine Le Pen, the main goal remains to seize power in time for the 2027 presidential election, after winning two second-round seats in 2017. Now he is at the head of the first opposition group to Milli. Assembly (89 members against 75 for La France) Marine Le Pen intends to use 2023 to argue that the National Rally is not just a protester or a tribune, but can also be a responsible institutional actor.
“Really Oppose and Really Propose” Sums up Sébastien Chenou, one of the two Le Penist vice-presidents of the National Assembly. One pitfall remains to be avoided: the excesses of activists or elected officials who recall the party’s extremist roots.
► LFI: elimination of internal crisis
If in April Jean-Luc Mélenchon took third place in the presidential elections after Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, in June La France insoumise scored points in the legislative elections. Taking the leadership of the New People’s Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) coalition on the one hand. On the other hand, forming the first left-wing group in the National Assembly.
Late 2022 Patatras: Adrien Quatennens, a deputy loyal to Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his potential successor, is convicted of domestic violence. Since then, La France has been divided over the fate of the insoumise. Therefore, it is a movement divided by a controversial administration that will try to mobilize the French on the street against the pension reform on January 21.
► PS: select its left
The 80th congress, held in Marseilles from January 27 to 29, is a decisive meeting for the Socialist Party. The ideological orientation of the former dominant party on the left is at stake, aside from the personal fate of First Secretary Olivier Faure, who is running for his own succession against Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol and Hélène Geoffroy.
He can either choose a social-liberal line in line with the former majority orientation and in line with the positions of the Party of European Socialists (PES) regarding the European elections in 2024. with the exercise of power and the European structure, but also with the new dominant party of the left, La France insoumise, as in the legislative elections of June 2022.
The question of reporting to the LFI was also at the center of the discussions at the EELV congress in December 2022 and will be at the center of the discussions at the PCF from April 7 to 10.