Will there be a war of the three?
The speaker is loyal from the first hour. One of these macronism freaks who appeared on the guest list of La Rotonde in 2017 and stood next to the oils in the hallowed Elysian halls of the saints on election night again five years later. of the majority. When he remembers this night of victory on April 24, 2022, this close friend of the president remembers feeling something. “interesting” : “At 8 p.m., Emmanuel was re-elected. At 20:01, observing everyone around me, I understood: the process has already begun. All of them were already thinking about 2027. It was physically reflected in their relationship! »
successions in politics
In general, this is the least prepared moment in politics. Where the elders refuse to hand over as they struggle to accommodate the new ones. “L’Obs” analyzed four stories of the current sequence:
- Philippe, Darmanin, Le Maire: will there be a war of three (1/4)
- Are Clémentine Autain and François Ruffin ready to “do better” than Mélenchon? (2/4)
- In Les Républicains, Nicolas Sarkozy’s Impossible Legacy (3/4)
- Marine Le Pen succeeds Bardella in RN (4/4)
Re-elected Emmanuel Macron also quickly realized that this five-year term would not have much in common with the previous one. The head of state, weakened by the lack of an absolute majority in the parliament, has been witnessing this secret battle of suitors since the spring. Ambitions are asserting themselves before their eyes and appetite is sharpening. The tenant of the Elysee is, of course, in an unprecedented situation: as a result of the revision of the constitution in 2008, he V.e The Republic will start the second term with the certainty that it will not be able to run again. After that, at lunches and dinners in town, all the macaroni speculate, without any taboo, about the identity of the one (or ones) who might take the torch in five years.
With this in mind, three personalities are in focus and seem to be one step ahead for now: Gerald Darmanin, Bruno Le Maire and Edouard Philippe. These three people, who studied at the UMP and held the highest functions of the Republic before walking together in Macronie, know each other by heart and are preparing for the possibility of facing each other one day or another. But in the meantime, everyone is measuring themselves, looking at each other, advancing their pawns and specifying their strategy for 2027: gathering troops, looking for funding, field work, “treatment” Members of parliament…
Admittedly, the trio of stakeholders agree, it would be crazy to imagine that the script for this future presidential election could be written now. But it is clear that for the time being, Macronia, especially the left wing, is watching the beginning of this tripartite match with some helplessness, which, if we say wrongly, looks like a true right-wing primacy.
Edouard Philippe, the favorite
As he dominates all the popularity polls and his passing of Matignon gives him the statesmanship, Edouard Philippe is seen as the best for some today. “Of the true triad, I believe more in the Edwardian hypothesis, with the French precisely because of this ranking.”, the minister assures. The former Prime Minister is also the most outspoken colorist, having formed his own political team, Horizons, from 2021. According to friends of the former head of government, the Phillipist movement, which claims to have about twenty thousand members, should run for Le Havre in 2027. “He’s on a permanent campaign now” one of his friends whispers.
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His friends, his flaws, his strategy… Eduard Philip was revealed naked
More “free” that he is not “faithful”, Edouard Philippe, who has always claimed to be a right-winger, is not going to fully subscribe to Emmanuel Macron’s legacy. In his view, Macronism remains a bracket of history, and Norman focuses on establishing himself ideologically “next to” the presidential camp and keeping a healthy distance from the debates that incite the majority. Sometimes at the risk of appearing distant from the concerns of the majority, even disappearing from radar screens.
Emmanuel Macron’s first Committee for National Reconstruction (CNR)? He drained her by claiming a long-planned visit to Quebec. The making of a renaissance? He was there but did not speak. At the many dinners he was always invited to at the Elysée, he almost always behaved in the same way. His positions are rare, his ideas are not clear. Even regarding the old fashioned lowering of the legal retirement age, he is content to say that he will support the chosen solution, whatever it is today.
Eduard Philip wants “brick laying”. Already having about thirty deputies in the Assembly, he has senatorial elections in his sights. Preferring substantive ideas to jaw blows, he intends to place himself on the intellectual field through “Horizont” magazines. The next one will be devoted to unemployment insurance.
Edward promises that there will be many pitfalls for Philip. The hard core of the Macronists continues their stubborn hatred of him. “He will be a candidate and we have integrated him” He assures this close friend of the head of state. “He will be the candidate of the liberal and pro-European right, he will implement an inappropriate political project. But how serious are his positions? 10-12%, that’s it. Eduard Philippe is a Giscard without destiny, nothing else. » Could it be a source of additional motivation for the person concerned? Emmanuel Macron himself, as it is said in the halls of power, would not want his former prime minister to succeed him.
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Gerald Darmanin, “internal affairs” strategist
The head of state is more lenient towards another ambitious person who has gained his trust: Gerald Darmanin. The interior minister, who was a great “friend” of Eduard, knew how to place himself in the center of the presidential system since he moved to Beauvaux. Nicola Sarkozy’s ex-campaign director on security and immigration applies his former mentor’s advice to his letter: saturating the media space by allegedly showcasing his popular fiber. The mayor of Turkoing, the son of a cleaning lady, proudly claims his humble origins. “After Olivier Dussopt, I am the most left-wing of the government”, he braved the Renaissance leaders again at the end of October, where he, moreover, assumed duties that did not betray his intentions. In the organizational plan of the new presidential party, Darmanin is indeed responsible for training. He toured departments to meet with him, elected officials and activists. Field, create a network like nothing else. And the stable. “He enters the house in 2027”.
In order to allow the presidential elections, the Minister of Internal Affairs is already walking on two well-defined legs, so security is also working. One day he links the numbers between immigration and delinquency, or announces a better application of the OQTF (obligations to leave French territory); another suggests his party hold a wage conference or promises to regularize undocumented workers in labor-intensive sectors.
Before tackling Elysian Everest, Gerald Darman noted a date in his diary: 2024. That year, the year of the Europeans, would be politically decisive. Emmanuel Macron will be mid-term, and this is when the Renaissance party will freeze the method of appointing the future majority candidate. Until then, if he wants to run for the top job, the interior minister believes he will have to rely on his record and therefore results on security and migration subjects. His long-awaited immigration text will be debated in Parliament between March and April. Finally, he knows that he will have to successfully overcome the obstacle of organizing the Olympic Games. “Then, after 2024, Gerald will have three options.” summarizes the parliamentarian.
“The first one he didn’t master is called Matignon. The second, which he had no more control over, would have been to leave Beauvau to another ministry, why not Bercy. The third would be to take over the presidential party. This is a real option. »
Bruno Le Maire, the new celebrity
Will Bruno Le Maire free him? The man who tried to run for the Elysée before failing in the primary has indeed decided not to neglect the Renaissance party. Bercy Master since 2017, he inherited a key role in the Macronist movement: he is responsible for overseeing the “ideas” pillar. Proof that he is also looking at 2027?
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The economy minister now has an image for him that he created during the Covid crisis, which is not what we expected. Adhering to strict budgetary orthodoxy, he later advocated spending without counting expenses. “whatever it takes” presidency. Rebelote, since then, with an energy shield.
Among the advantages touted by his entourage: his new status as a “star” in power. According to an Odoxa Backbone Consulting poll published on December 22, Bruno Le Maire is now both the most recognized minister (89%) and the most liked (56%) of the Borne team. In business circles, the Minister of Economy, who is at the front during the “budget” sequence, takes care of the parliamentary networks and pampers a number of deputies who enthusiastically claim “Lemairism” – like Gerald Darmanin. “. Her entourage also enthusiastically supports the idea that she can make her way to Washington without seriously thinking about 2027. Bulgarian Kristalina Georgieva’s presidency of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is indeed planned for 2024. “Bruno doesn’t have thirty-six options: either he goes up and passes Matignon, or he breaks.” release the minister. ” A little stuck. And it is impossible for him to try to leave suddenly. »
It remains to be seen whether Bruno Le Maire will be able to adapt to the constraints of presidential elections, a delicate and restrictive exercise in which it is necessary to display a certain populism. “field sense”. His fierce opposition to taxing the super profits of energy companies has left him with the image of a personality willing to do anything to protect big companies above all else.
Emmanuel Macron of the Elysee thinks: how can these three claims be maintained? It was he who, looking for Parade, decided that his succession could be discussed in 2024 after the Europeans had passed. “But until then, no one should weaken the building.”warns one of the members of his bodyguard.