Cac 40 in a slight decline, the monetary policy of the central banks is in the cross line

The Paris Stock Exchange is giving up several points in front of the central banks at the start of this important week with the monetary decision of the Bank of America on Wednesday and the decisions of the ECB and the Bank of England the following day. Investors are waiting for possible indications of the peak of interest rates and the time it will take to reach them, aware that major central banks will have to continue tightening policies amid stubbornly high inflation.

Around 2:30 p.m Bedroom 40 It lost 0.32% to 6,656.26 points on limited business volume of around 950 million euros. Contracts will come It gained value by 0.3% on American indices. Horizon Therapeutics after announcing its acquisition by the stock market advanced 15% Amgen at a unit price of $11.60 per share, a premium of about 20% to the last closing price. Sanofi ended its discussions with Horizon, leaving the field open for Amgen. BestBuy It rose 2% as Goldman Sachs raised its “sell” recommendation to “neutral”.

The Fed begins a two-day meeting of its monetary policy committee tomorrow. Ironically, FOMC members will have learned just before the evolution of consumer prices in November that this element should be factored into their monetary decisions.

50 basis points in the central scenario

According to the consensus compiled by Bloomberg, inflation in the United States could fall to 7.3% in a year after 7.7% in October. Core data (excluding food and energy) could fall to 6.1% last month from 6.3% in October. Therefore, such numbers should show improvement, but ” We don’t think it will be enough for the Fed to dove into its point estimates of Fed funds as part of its December economic projections. dowries [points] Around 5% or above for 2023, and above 4% for 2024 would be really hawkish warns John Velis of BNY Mellon.

ING’s Chris Turner said the week’s macroeconomic and monetary events should further determine whether investors are focused on inflation or recessionary risks heading into 2023.

Several Fed officials, including Jerome Powell, have signaled that the cost of credit will remain more restrictive for some time. A stance at odds with expectations that the scale of rate hikes will drop to 50 basis points on Tuesday, after four consecutive hikes of 75 basis points. The October statistics showed that consumer prices are moving in the right direction, which could prompt the Fed to ease some of the pressure. where there are many other negative elements that can bring down inflation “, explains Naeem Aslam, market analyst at Ava Trade. In the bond market, the yield on the US 10-year bond fell 3 points to 3.5342%.

Big order for Airbus and Boeing, Accor bad

The Bank of England and ECB will follow on Thursday, and they should also favor monetary tightening of 50 basis points. Such an increase for the ECB would also mark a drop after 10.6 consecutive tightenings of three quarters of a percentage point twice in a row, thanks to the first slowdown in euro zone inflation in a year and a half to 10% in November. % in October.

Airbus It increased by 1.1%. Air India is set to place an order for at least 500 planes worth tens of billions of dollars from the European planemaker and Boeing, Reuters reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.

ArcelorMittal The Stoxx 600 lost 1.4% in majors after the easing of health restrictions in China due to the acceleration of Covid-19 infections in China.

L’Oreal It decreased by 1.2%. RBC downgraded the cosmetics group to “underperform” from “online perform”.

In turn, Morgan Stanley went down Capgemini from “overweight” to “line weight”. SSII moves 0.9% folded, while Citi has begun coveringEssilor Luxottica (+1.2%) to “buy” to target €210.

Except for the flagship index, Accor It fell 4.2% as Jefferies downgraded the hotel group stock from “hold” to “underperform.”